Contents The main characters of this non fiction, … The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2019. [19] Thus, the black swan is an oft cited reference in philosophical discussions of the improbable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & … The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. The term "black swan" was originally commonly used in sixteenth century Europe to describe a sense of improbability. He also describes the "barbell strategy" for investment that he used as a trader, which consists in avoiding medium risk investments and putting 85–90% of money in the safest instruments available and the remaining 10–15% on extremely speculative bets.[16][17]. Random House, 2007. Home > Book Summary - The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan is the 2nd book in the five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on uncertainty. Something went wrong. One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. He really harps, literally every 5 pages, on how the bell-curve is Satan's brainchild. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb has made his living (and a small fortune, now transformed into a large fortune by the 2008 market) in an unusual way -- by financial speculation in contexts where he spots a … With over 1,000 reviews already don't think I can add much beyond that I really enjoyed this book, Probably should have read the 2nd edition but I picked up the 1st one cheap and still found it very worthwhile. This book is terrible for countless reasons. What You Do Not Know Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. "A critical review of Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier into a narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal. Not all swans are white, and not all events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable. Great Read Excellent Author Must Have For Sure, Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2016. Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. Free download or read online The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable pdf (ePUB) (Incerto Series) book. Jump to navigation Jump to search. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. [5] Part Four contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random A former options trader, risk analyst, and hedge fund manager, Taleb is currently regarded as a scholar, essayist, and serves as Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering. In Extremistan environments, a Gaussian distribution should be used at one's own peril. Please try your request again later. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for BLACK SWAN: IMPACT OF HIGHLY IMPROBABLE By Nassim Nicholas Taleb at the best online prices at eBay! It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list. The term black swan was a Latin expression: its oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal's expression that "a good person is as rare as a black swan" ("rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno", 6.165).
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